The climate crisis has been in our consciousness for decades. Centuries of fossil fuel use and greenhouse gas emissions have led to Earth warming at an unprecedented rate. The effects of climate change on a global scale are well known and are likely what most people are familiar with. However, understanding the effects of climate change on specific places is more difficult, due to the amount of variables that affect weather and climate. Even once the effects of climate change are known, it is another thing entirely to forecast how those effects will influence our daily lives. When we hear about the climate crisis in the news, and talk of 2°C warming or 400 PPM, what does that mean for Cyprus?

This resource is an attempt to make clear what the stakes of the climate crisis are in Cyprus. While it is impossible to say exactly what will happen, data from the Cyprus Institute and other sources paints a good picture of what the island will see in the coming years. Cyprus is facing a future with higher temperatures and less precipitation when compared to years past, which will intensify the desertification of the island. This will, in turn, affect just about every aspect of life in Cyprus, and especially water availability, food production and heat waves that will change urban and rural living.

It is important to note that, while much of the issues are tied to and directly made worse by climate change, they are also affected by existing environmental issues and decisions made by governments, businesses and people.

Avli’s goal is to educate the public about these issues and to take actions to minimize the impact of the climate crisis on Cyprus. Join our mailing list to keep up with the latest news, or become a part of Avli and be a part of this resistance!

Rising Temperature

Cyprus is in the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East, a hot spot of global climate change. The Eastern Mediterranean is already facing temperature increases greater than average, and this is projected to become more significant as the global temperature continues to rise.

Average temperatures rising means that Cyprus will see greater temperature extremes. This is especially evident in the summer – Cyprus has already seen hotter summers compared to years past. Future average temperature increases will be felt more in the summer months: for example, a mean temperature rise of 1.5˚C will likely mean a rise of 2˚C in the summer and 1˚C in the winter.

According to the Cyprus Institute, mean temperatures in Cyprus could rise significantly, by “about 1 to 3°C in the next three decades, of 3 to 5°C by mid-century and 3.5 to 7°C by the end of the century.” This could cause the number of hot days in Cyprus exceeding 38˚C to increase by another two weeks between 2020 and 2050. For example, in 2019 Nicosia had 12 days where the temperature was greater than 38˚C. By 2050, Nicosia could see about 24 of such days, a more than 100% increase. Cyprus will also experience an additional 30 warm “tropical” nights exceeding 25˚C than it does currently. In 2019, Nicosia experienced 6 nights where the temperature was greater than or equal to 25˚C. By 2050, Nicosia could see 36 such nights, or a 600% increase. Half of those warm tropical nights also saw temperatures greater than 38˚C during the day, meaning that for 18 days in 2050, Nicosia could see incredibly high daytime temperatures with no relief as the sun sets.

Less Rain

Cyprus is already seeing a significant decrease in rainfall, and in the future will see average precipitation continue to decline. Cyprus suffers from the highest level of water stress in Europe, mostly due to being one of the driest countries on the continent in terms of rainfall. Since Cyprus is in a climate change hot spot, this problem will become more acute as time goes on.

The average annual precipitation between 1971-2000 (462 mm) is about 17% lower than the average annual precipitation between 1901-1930 (559 mm) and is lower than any recorded 30 year period between those two as well. The average annual precipitation between 1989 and 2019 is 465 mm, which puts it slightly above the average of 1971-2000, but with many extremes, including the driest year since 1972 (2007) and the wettest year since 1968 (2019).

Additionally, the frequency of years that can be described as Low Precipitation, Drought and Severe Drought (less than 90% of normal) has increased since the beginning of the 20th century, while the amount of years that can be described as High Precipitation, Very High Precipitation and Extremely High Precipitation (greater than 110% of normal) has decreased. This means that while years with higher precipitation are still possible, it is increasingly likely that any given year will have less precipitation than average.

Zooming out to the larger Eastern Mediterranean, a regional analysis of the changes in precipitation by the Cyprus Institute found a significant change in the 1916-2000 annual precipitation. The key point seems to be between the years 1968/69 and 1971/72, with a 15-25% reduction in precipitation for the last 30 years of the 20th century.

Already facing this existing reduction in precipitation, Cyprus will see additional reductions of 10-15% between 2020 and 2050. Most of the decrease will be seen in the already dry spring and summer seasons. The increasing need for both drinking water and more irrigation in the spring and summer means there will be a growing water stress in Cyprus, as traditional water resources decrease.

Cyprus may face a water availability decrease of 20-30% from current levels under a 2°C global temperature rise scenario and by 40-50% under a 4°C warming scenario. Global temperatures are likely to rise above 2°C, given current trends, so Cyprus will likely face more drought years, such as in 2008.

Desertification

Desertification is the process of fertile land being degraded both by direct human activity and climate change. Human activity that can cause desertification includes overgrazing, deforestation, misuse of water resources and poor soil management techniques.

In Cyprus, the land is especially vulnerable to desertification because of the increasing temperatures and decreasing precipitation. The already sensitive soil means that desertification in Cyprus is heavily affected by the soil management practices of the agricultural sector, which have less room for error than in places where there is more water and lower temperatures.

According to the Cyprus National Action Programme to Combat Desertification, about 57% of Cyprus is already at risk of desertification, and approximately 7% is irreversibly affected by it. By 2050, about 72% of Cyprus will be at risk for desertification, and by the end of the century, models estimate around 85% of the island will be at risk for desertification.

Climate change is accelerating the desertification that Cyprus faces. Land is less at risk for desertification as long as it has a good mix of organic matter in the soil. This organic matter is tied to the health of vegetation on the land. As Cyprus gets hotter and drier, the vegetation on the land is subject to more stress, which reduces the overall amount of healthy vegetation. This will cause the soil to have less organic matter, putting it at higher risk of desertification. This means that in the near future, there will be less good land for agriculture, as well as more dust in the air as the soil gets drier and more likely to get blown around by wind.

What does Cyprus’ future look like if we take no action?

The threats to Cyprus are not limited exclusively to climate change. Development pressure threatens nature and wildlife, mismanagement of soil contributes to land degradation and the island continues to face pollution on both the land and in the water. However, climate change poses a unique threat to Cyprus because it makes all of these issues worse.

How will climate change affect you?

Water Stress

Cyprus is facing the twin problems of facing less rainfall and more demand for water, due to the rising population, increased tourism and increased consumption patterns. Cyprus already faces the highest levels of water stress in Europe; how will climate change affect the water situation on the island?

With less water than ever in Cyprus, life will look a lot different, especially in the summers. Showers, car washes and other uses of water will most likely have to be rationed, in order to preserve water to keep crops alive. Dams will most likely run dry as they did in 2008, and will likely not see rainfall that will refill them. Cyprus will be more dependent on imported water and desalinated water, which will make it a more expensive resource.

Water stress is a metric that encapsulates the quantity and quality of water in an area and compares it to how much demand there is for water. The OECD defines a water stress index of more than 40% as high water stress, 20%–40% is classified as medium-high, while 10%–20% is characterized as moderate water stress. Cyprus is the most affected country of the European Union by water stress, with an index of approximately 66%. This number is projected to grow as demand increases and precipitation continues to decline.

Cyprus gets its water from a series of dams that prevent water that falls on the island from reaching the sea. While this saves water for consumption, it also stops water from recharging aquifers, which degrades the soil and water quality further and makes desertification worse. To keep up with demand, the Republic of Cyprus has also become increasingly reliant on desalination plants, which turn salty ocean water into drinkable water via the energy intense process of desalination. In the North of Cyprus, there is acute water stress to be solved via a pipeline from Turkey, but negotiations have stalled the implementation of this plan. While these innovations are helpful for the short and medium term water supply, dwindling resources means that Cyprus will pour more money into expensive energy plants, and be more reliant on water imported either via the pipeline to Turkey in the North or through shipments of water in the South.

In addition to a steady decline of precipitation, this also means that Cyprus will be much more sensitive to more sudden drought events. The most recent of these was around 2008, when the Eastern Mediterranean experienced its worst drought in 900 years, after several years of below average rainfall.

Climate change makes Cyprus more vulnerable to droughts such as this one. As recently as 2018, Cypriot farmers faced cuts in the amount of public water they are allowed to use, as the island finds a delicate balance between meeting the needs to agriculture, tourism and domestic use.

Water demand has been growing, all while the island has 40% less water than had been assumed based on records before 1970. In addition, records from 2005 show that 89% of the groundwater bodies are at risk due to over pumping and 63% are at risk due to sea-water intrusion. This is significant because once seawater starts to enter aquifers, it further degrades the quality of the water, which will make Cyprus much more reliant on other sources of fresh water.

The most water consuming industry in Cyprus is agriculture, which uses 64% of the island’s water resources. The other water consuming sectors are domestic use (28.4%), tourism (4.7%) and the industrial sector (2.9%).

Food Production

How will climate change affect what is on your plate? Agriculture in the Mediterranean is already held back due to variability in rainfall as well as very high temperatures in the summer. This situation is going to be worsened in Cyprus, as rainfall will continue to decrease as temperatures rise, which will increase irrigation demand and soil degradation while simultaneously decreasing crop yield. The increase in irrigation demand stands in opposition to the Water Development Department’s recommendation for a 15% decrease in Cyprus’ irrigation demands in order to meet the European Water Framework Directive. As mentioned, agriculture is already the most water demanding sector in Cyprus.

Decreasing precipitation means that there will be less water for crops, as well as less water to recharge aquifers, which are pumped for water when there is no precipitation. At the same time increasing demand for irrigation will place more pressure on aquifers while simultaneously raising the price of water. As aquifers receive less water for recharge, they will face a higher risk of salt water intrusion, which further limits their use because of degraded water quality.

Cyprus is already seeing the negative impacts of climate change on food production. From 1980 to 2008, Cyprus has seen a 39% reduction in the harvested areas of vines, such as grapes, and fruit trees. Projections indicate that average annual crop production could fall by an additional 40% or more.

Analysis of two possible climate change scenarios, with more dry years, greater evaporative demand and a reduced irrigation water supply, resulted in a reduction of the 2010 irrigated area by 25%, and projected a reduction of 41% to 43% in total national crop production for 2013/14-2019/2020, relative to 1980/81-2008/09.

The reduction in area that will be irrigated goes hand in hand with the reduction is crop production, as less available water means that crops are more sensitive to drought and will therefore be less likely to survive dry spells.

From an economic perspective, models suggest that crop prices could be affected significantly and at a wide range in Cyprus due to climate change, facing increases between 2% and 79%. This would significantly change the average family’s expenditure for groceries, as they would see a similar rise in price at the supermarket.

So as a result of less water and increased temperatures, Cyprus will have less food grown on the island and more food imported, which in turn will drive up prices. This could spell disaster for farmers in Cyprus, and leave the food supply on the island vulnerable to shocks.

For example, imagine you own a vineyard in Omodos, nestled in the Troodos mountains. You produce enough grapes to make your own wine, and sell it in stores around the island. Making wine is labor intensive, and the equipment can cost a lot of money, but for the past 10 years you have been able to sell your wine at a reasonable cost, €10 a bottle for your cheapest wine, up to €30 a bottle for your most expensive. Last year, it rained more than it has in decades in Cyprus, but this year there is a mild drought, which is not a disaster because of the water saved in the dams from last year. You are able to produce similar amounts of grapes to make your wine. However, next year there is also below average rainfall, and the amount of grapes you produce falls by 15%. The next year there is even less rain and you produce 35% less grapes. That means that over the course of two years, you lose 25% of your potential earnings from wine. You try to make up for it with higher prices, making the cheapest wine 25% more expensive, at €12.50, and your most expensive wine €37.50. This works for a few years, but soon you are facing an average production loss of 40% of your crop. This mean you need to raise your wine prices to €14 a bottle and €42 a bottle. At the same time, you are spending much more money on water, as you try and keep your crops alive, because every other winery in Cyprus is having the same problem. After about 7 years of below average rainfall, the precipitation you have been praying for comes, about 150% of normal. But since your crops have dried out for seven years, 40% of your field is loose, sandy, dirt, which washes away after each torrent, making it unusable. You’re faced with a choice: invest more into your winery, knowing the climatic projections in Cyprus mean that things will not get better, or recoup whatever of your investment that you can and go into another field. You decide it is not worth it, and that you want to sell what you can. But who is buying a winery now, when they have seen what has happened to you and many other wineries in Cyprus? You stay in Omodos, but give up on the winery, hoping someone will buy it. One day, you decide to buy a bottle of wine for your niece’s 20th birthday. You go to the store, and there are two bottles of Cypriot wine still being sold. You remember them as competitors, but they stuck around to try and still make wine, but have had to raise their prices by 70%, which means the bottle of wine that you are about to buy for €34 used to be a €20 bottle. Due to the loss of income from your failed wine business, you sigh and put the bottle back, and pick up the cheapest one you can find, a €17 bottle that you know is worse than the €10 bottles you used to sell.

Substitute a winery for a potato farm, olive grove or orange trees. Cyprus is facing a calamity in its agricultural sector, which will affect not only farmers, but consumers, who will have to increasingly rely on imported goods, which will also be more expensive due to similar stories playing out in the Eastern Mediterranean and the wider world.

Heat in the City, Fire in the Country

The number one thing cities need to worry about is extreme heat. Think about the hottest days you can remember where you live. You probably don’t need to reach too far back. For example, Nicosia reached 46 degrees Celsius on 5 September 2020, the highest daily maximum temperature ever recorded in the city. Cyprus will face more very hot days in the summer, which will set off heat waves that will affect life in the cities and wildfires that will affect rural villages and wild areas.

Heat waves are extreme spikes of temperature conditions. Higher average temperatures means those spikes in temperature will get even hotter, placing significant parts of the population at risk. Cities tend to be more vulnerable to these spikes due to the “Urban Heat Island Effect,” which is the effect that built materials have on increasing temperatures in cities. Pavement, asphalt, cement and other aspects of cities tend to make them much hotter than the surrounding countryside, especially in the summer.

According to analysis by the Cyprus Institute, the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East will face an increase in the occurrence and intensity of heat waves. These extreme heat events will far exceed average summer temperatures, and more likely be closer to that maximum temperature felt in Nicosia, about 43 degrees Celsius. These extreme heat events, instead of lasting days, could last weeks or even months, as the region continues to heat up.

Why is this dangerous? Extreme heat already kills more people than any other natural disaster. This number will only grow as the world continues to heat, and especially if there are no adaption methods that will take place. Extreme heat most heavily impacts those most vulnerable: the elderly, the very young and the poor. In Cyprus, a heatwave in 2017 had tragic consequences as two people died due to heatstroke.

It is 2030. You are sitting in your apartment in Nicosia watching the news. It has been 5 straight days of 43+ degrees, they are forecasting another 4 days of this at least, and you cannot take it anymore. You decide to take off the rest of the week from work, and head to Akamas to be by the water. As you drive the main road from Nicosia to Polis, through Paphos and Limassol, you stop by your elderly grandfather’s nursing home to see how he is doing. You enter the home and you see your Pappou sitting in the main room, under the air conditioner, along with 15 of his friends. “Pappou!” you exclaim “It is very hot in your room!” Indeed it is sweltering in the old folks home, especially in their rooms. The air conditioners in their bedrooms cannot be running at the same time as the big one in the living room, or else they will blow a fuse. It can be days before an air condition repairman can be found because of high demand, leaving the 16 older people in a situation together where the inside temperature can get to 37 degrees. Your Pappou is in good health, but at 88 years old, is very sensitive to heat. You want to take him with you on your vacation to Akamas, but you know that he needs to stay in the home and be taken care of. You tell the nursing staff to call you in case anything happens, because that is all you can do. You keep driving from Paphos to Polis, and you notice that the air is not very clear. You pull off the main road to drive your favorite route through the villages, when you realize that the countryside is ablaze. The same heat wave that hit Nicosia for the past week has also hit Akamas, thought it has been a little cooler at only 38 degrees. However, a careless hunter dropped a cigarette on dry bushes, which set off a massive fire that has burned through about 20 hectares already. Authorities are trying to get it under control, but unfortunately, the water supply has been low so they are struggling with putting it out.

Dangerous temperature spikes will not only make it uncomfortable to live in cities, but also put rural and wild areas in Cyprus in danger. According to the Department of Forests, climate change is likely to prolong the fire season and increase both the likelihood of a fire and the speed at which they spread. In the 20 year period between 2000 and 2019, Cyprus saw an average of 156 forest fires per year, which burned an average of 2,300 hectares of land – or 44,000 hectares over the course of 20 years, roughly the size of Paphos. This is controllable, as 84% of the fires in this period were human caused, though most were caused by negligence rather than a deliberate act of arson.

This report was prepared by Nikolas Michael as part of his Fulbright Research project for the year 2019-2020. For more information please contact Nikolas at [email protected].

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